Thursday, July 16, 2009

THE DEAL PROFESSOR

If you ever wanted to get into some of the ugly details surrounding corporate governance and their ethical (or lack thereof) practices The Deal Professor is the site for you. Managed by two lawyers who deal in corporate law and research, the site looks at developments that the headlines tend to miss. In this review, "Are Banks Getting Cheeky?", Steven M. Davidoff tells us that banks are beginning to ratchet up the same attitude and scams that got us into this mess. So, yes, they're getting cheeky.

Some of you may find some of the language a bit tedious - finance speak is tough to learn for many - but the site is a great source for those looking to understand the forces behind the financial currents. If you've read my book - and like it - you will love this site. Have fun.

- Mark

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

BANNING CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS?

Money Morning's Martin Hutchinson just posted an article explaining why market players, and the U.S. Congress, needs to support Rep. Maxine Waters' (D-CA) bill banning credit default swaps.

So, what are credit default swaps? In a few words they're supposed to be insurance contracts for the complex financial instruments that helped bring down the market. Why do they need to be banned? Because no one could pay out on the contracts when the market meltdown occurred. Here's a synopsis of the credit default swap market (which appeared in my book, p. 228) which helps explain why.

Credit default swaps (CDS) are insurance-like contracts that promise to cover losses on certain securities in the event of a default. They typically apply to municipal bonds, corporate debt, and mortgage securities. They are sold by banks, hedge funds, and other market players. Like anyone who purchases car insurance those who purchase CDS contracts make payments on a regular basis. In return they get peace of mind, knowing that losses will be covered if a default happens.

The process is supposed to work similarly to someone taking out car or home insurance to protect against losses from fire and theft. Except that it doesn’t. Banks and insurance companies are regulated; the CDS market is not. This explains why credit default swap contracts were traded — or swapped — from market player to market player without any oversight. Most market players simply wanted the income stream from the “premiums” paid.

Not surprisingly, many buyers did not have the resources to cover losses if the security that they insured failed. This is what happened in 2007 and 2008. Like small insurance companies who hoped they never would have to face claims from a regional earthquake or a Katrina-like event, market players who provided insurance for investment and derivative portfolios weren’t properly capitalized and could not pay out claims when their markets collapsed.
Can you imagine buying car insurance and then having your insurer say, "Sorry, we're out of money, we only wanted your premiums ..."? This is essentially what has happened with the CDS market. The problem with the CDS market is that it gave investors-speculators a false sense of confidence. It helped them believe that their products and portfolios were insured. This encouraged them to write and invent even more complex financial instruments, which only fed the cycle that led to market collapse.

Consdider this: The size of the CDS market grew from a "modest" $1 trillion in 2001 to an astounding $54.6 trillion (some estimates put the amount at $75 trillion) by 2008. This was more than double the size of the U.S. stock market. If you're wondering where your trillions in bailout money has been going, wonder no more. Much of it is now going to pay off these insurance contracts - which insured bad bets and poorly vetted financial instruments. This explains why some of the financial conglomerates are now reporting "profits" this quarter. They're getting payout (and bonuses) for writing bad product.

I agree with Rep. Maxine Waters. The practice of issuing CDS contracts in their current form should be banned. Still, I also think there are some merits to insurance markets for certain industries. But insuring market "bets" and other "derivative" contracts should not be part of the equation.

Read Hutchinson's article. It goes a long way in explaining why we will only end up doing our market meltdown all over again if we don't deal with (i.e. regulate) the CDS market now.

- Mark

Monday, July 13, 2009

EXPLAINING PALINTOLOGY


Frank Rich has an interesting column in today's NY Times describing the increasingly strong hold that Sarah Palin has on the GOP. Worse, Rich argues, is how the Republican Party - just like Michael Jackson apologists have done - has come to justify and embrace Palin's strange logic and her recent life decisions. Here's how Rich opens his article:

SARAH PALIN and Al Sharpton don’t ordinarily have much in common, but they achieved a rare harmonic convergence at Michael Jackson’s memorial service. When Sharpton told the singer’s children it was their daddy’s adversaries, not their daddy, who were “strange,” he was channeling the pugnacious argument the Alaska governor had made the week before. There was nothing strange about her decision to quit in midterm, Palin told America. What’s strange — or “insane,” in her lingo — are the critics who dare question her erratic behavior on the national stage.
So, what makes Palin the star of the party? In a few words, her ability to tap into the Republican's sense of resentment and victimization.

The essence of Palinism is emotional, not ideological. Yes, she is of the religious right, even if she winks literally and figuratively at her own daughter’s flagrant disregard of abstinence and marriage. But family-values politics, now more devalued than the dollar by the philandering of ostentatiously Christian Republican politicians, can only take her so far. The real wave she’s riding is a loud, resonant surge of resentment and victimization that’s larger than issues like abortion and gay civil rights.
What makes this development so dangerous, according to Rich, is how reality flies out the door when it comes to evaluating Sarah Palin and what she supposedly represents.

The politics of resentment are impervious to facts. Palinists regard their star as an icon of working-class America even though the Palins’ combined reported income ($211,000) puts them in the top 3.6 percent of American households. They see her as a champion of conservative fiscal principles even though she said yes to the Bridge to Nowhere and presided over a state that ranks No.1 in federal pork.
There's more (the article is longer than a standard op-ed) but Rich makes it clear that the key to understanding why the Republicans have come to embrace Sarah Palin is how she puts a pretty face on the very ugly politics of resentment.

- Mark

UPDATE: I just found this from the Wall Street Journal. Peggy Noonan, former special assistant to Ronald Reagan, is horrified at the prospect of Sarah Palin leading the Republican Party. Here's a snippet of what she thinks about Sarah Palin:

In television interviews she was out of her depth in a shallow pool. She was limited in her ability to explain and defend her positions, and sometimes in knowing them. She couldn't say what she read because she didn't read anything. She was utterly unconcerned by all this and seemed in fact rather proud of it: It was evidence of her authenticity. She experienced criticism as both partisan and cruel because she could see no truth in any of it. She wasn't thoughtful enough to know she wasn't thoughtful enough. Her presentation up to the end has been scattered, illogical, manipulative and self-referential to the point of self-reverence. "I'm not wired that way," "I'm not a quitter," "I'm standing up for our values." I'm, I'm, I'm.

Friday, July 10, 2009

RADIO PROGRAM

I apologize for being away for the week. My brother showed up and we ended up spending more time away than expected. Anyways, here's what's happening with the radio program.

Simply put, we need more sponsors. The primary sponsors that we have will continue with their commitments but others have had their circumstances change with the economy. I will look for additional sponsors, and welcome suggestions from those of you who have come to enjoy our program. I will keep you informed as we move along.

While I will begin posting this coming Monday, we will be off the air for the time being.

- Mark

Thursday, July 2, 2009

OUR JOBS, HEALTH CARE & FINANCE PICTURE

This is just a small glimpse into why things aren't going to be looking up for a while ...

First up, new unemployment figures are out. And they're not good. Today 9.5% of America is officially unemployed. But that's only the beginning. The number of unemployed Americans who are no longer looking for work is up as well. Why is this bad? Because if you're so discouraged that you're no longer looking for work (almost 800,000 Americans) you're not counted as unemployed. This means that our unemployment rate is well above 10% (the job's picture is actually worse). Check out this interactive graph from the NY Times on the matter.

Up next, in another NY Times article we find an old bogeyman that's looming over our economy: insured people going bankrupt because their health insurance doesn't cover their bills. In fact, as I point out in my book, over half of all bankruptcies in America (well over a million this year) aren't caused by irresponsibile debtors. They are caused by catastrophic illness that happens to people who already have health insurance. The article takes us through one of those stories. How do we fix this? According to the article, here's one way:

If everyone in the country were required to have insurance, the industry says — a mandate that Congress is contemplating — the costs and risks of insurance would be spread over a large enough pool of people to let insurers provide full, affordable coverage even to people with pre-existing medical conditions.
I can hear the republicans now, "How much is this going to cost?" I can tell you one thing. Government "vouchers" (the proposed Obama plan) and competition from government hospitals (discussed in last week's program) would go a long way in making us more competitive while putting a bite in the 15.3% of GDP that we are currently spending on health care in America (which not even the "socialist" countries are spending). Put another way, we need national health care.

Finally, we have banks and mortgage lenders gearing up to kill President Obama’s proposed new consumer protection agency that's designed to regulate home loans, credit card fees, payday loans and other forms of consumer finance. That's right. The same institutions that created the economic mess, and that are still heavily dependent on taxpayer-supported loans and loan guarantees (worth about $9 trillion) for their survival, are working to make sure that they are free to do it all over again.

So, in a few words, we have regular Americans fighting to keep their jobs in a weakened economy backed by double-talk and predatory practices from their health insurers and creditors. And industry heavyweights want to keep the status quo. Nice.

- Mark

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

THE REAL IMPACT OF THE MELTDOWN

University of economics professer - and monthly guest on our program - Mark Thoma has an excellent post which discusses how the United States has mishandled both markets and democracy since the economic meltdown began. The impact this is having around the world, as was the case in the 1930s, is not good. Professor Thoma quotes Nobel laureate, Joseph Stiglitz:

The economic crisis, created largely by America’s behavior, has done more damage to these fundamental values [democracy & capitalistm] than any totalitarian regime ever could have. ...
For those of you who have read my book, or taken my International Relations (PS 304) or International Political Economy (PS 404) classes, the argument will not surprise you: Hypocrisy in the face of failure does much to undermine your ideals.

You can read the entire post, with links to the Stigliz piece, here.

- Mark

Monday, June 29, 2009

ANOTHER EMPTY COMMISSION?

The NY Times has an editorial that questions the strength of President Obama's "re-regulation" efforts. Specifically, the editorial says that his efforts have emerged with an "inauspicious start." Anyone who's been following this blog knows why I would consider this to be a very generous assessment. In my view, we're doing very little to discipline market stupidity and greed. In fact, it's being rewarded under the Bush-Obama plans.

Making matters worse is how the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission is being made up. This investigative body was created by Congress to perform an autopsy of the collapsed financial institutions and look into the conditions that led to the market meltdown, much in the spirit of the 1930s hearings led by Ferdinand Pecora. As Robert Kuttner points out, early indications are that the commission is going to be stocked with the same market sycophants who made the mess possible.


If early reports are correct, and people like former representatives Jake Garn (R-UT) and Bakersfield's Bill Thomas (R-CA) are on the commission, the commission promises to be little more than an apologetic rubber stamp for Wall Street's behavior. I write about Garn's role in helping to create the financial mess in my book (see page 253). For Bill Thomas' part, he rarely met a financial, oil, or agricultural group that he wouldn't support with taxpayer subsidies and favorable legislation. Why would either one of these two want to step up and find fault with the deregulatory legislation that they helped craft?

Put another way, the commission will be both toothless and gutless. The financial sharks will live to see another day.

- Mark

P.S. This post by former Labor Secretary, Robert Reich, explains why President Obama's plan for reforming Wall Street comes up empty. It's short and to the point.

Saturday, June 27, 2009

MICHAEL JACKSON EXPLAINS THE BAILOUTS?


I was watching the news this morning and the talking heads were all over the Michael Jackson story. But one discussion hit me as a particularly useful way for us to understand how absurd our bailout (and heavily subsidized) economy has become.

The discussion turned to the promoters of Michael Jackson's planned tour over the next year. It turns out that the promoters are going to lose a bundle in money that they fronted for the concert and did not insure. This is the easy part. We all understand that they should lose the money. This is what "investing" is all about. You roll the dice and take your chances.

But then the discussion turned to the resellers of Michael Jackson concert tickets. These people have already bought tickets with the intention of reselling them. Should the resellers (and their clients) be compensated? They think they should. Common sense, and market rules, says no. If common sense and regular market rules prevail the speculators (resellers) will not be compensated, and stand to lose a lot of money too. This is the way the market is supposed to work.

This, in a nutshell, is what the market players in our economy did. They made bets on products that had not yet matured. However, when their product went bad they went to the federal government (the U.S. taxpayer) for a bailout. They got it.

Too bad for concert ticket resellers. Somebody should tell them that they need more lobbyists in Congress.

I'm not sure, but I think this "Jackson-Ticket-Reseller" story goes a long way in helping to explain how absurd these bailouts are (we should have nationalized the failing institutions). It also helps explain how pampered and unmarket-like our financial sector has become too.

- Mark

EXPLAINING FANNIE & FREDDIE

Over the past year I've been asked about the role of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the housing market collapse many times. It's obvious from the discussions we see in the media that there are not too many people that understand what either one does. I discuss their history and describe what both do in my book. Still, this brief overview of both entities from Richard's Real Estate (hat tip to Economist's View) is about as succinct and on point as I've run across.

Back in 1987, when I started working on housing finance issues, I wondered this very thing. So I spoke with the person in charge of secondary market business for a Wisconsin Savings and Loan called First Financial (I wish I could remember his name now).

He had a crisp explanation: Fannie Mae was a Savings and Loan for Mortgage Bankers ... This was in fact the reason for their original existence. Fannie has been around since 1938, and it became private in 1968, and its purpose was to raise money from capital markets to fund mortgages originated by mortgage bankers. Between 1938-68, its business was entirely FHA and VA loans; thereafter it could fund private sector loans.

Freddie was chartered in 1970 at least in part in response to regional differences in the availability of mortgage credit. At that time, around 60 percent of mortgages were held by Savings and Loan Associations. These S&Ls were local businesses, who could not lend outside of their communities (I will need to double check, but my recollection is that they could not lend more then 150 miles away from their front door).

As young people migrated from the Northeast and Midwest to the sunbelt, leaving their parents and grandparents behind, there was a geographic mismatch between the location of deposits and the demand for mortgage credit. Freddie was invented to buy loans from S&Ls, turn them into securities, and sell them in the secondary market. This allowed money to flow where it was needed.

The distinction between the two institutions disappeared in 1992, with the passage of the Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act (FHEFSSA). I am guessing that the reason we kept two around was to have some competition in the MBS issuance market.
I'll discuss this on the program after our discussion with Professor Thoma.

- Mark

Friday, June 26, 2009

MICHAEL JACKSON

This was the very first album I had growing up. I've liked his music ever since.


- Mark

P.S.: My kids had no idea why Michael Jackson was such a big deal. I showed them Michael Jackson's Moonwalk. My daughter said that it was "freaky cool" because she had only seen it on cartoons and didn't think anybody could actually do that. So I decided to post it here. The Moonwalk begins at 3:40.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

LIMBAUGH: OBAMA MADE SANFORD DO IT

With his suggestion that South Carolina Governor Sanford was in Argentina having an affair because he's fed up with - and trying to escape - Obama's America, Rush Limbaugh proves that he's little more than a clown ...

- Mark

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

DROWNING IN DEBT

MSNBC has a very accessible (i.e. non-academic) series of articles that takes a look at how Americans are "Drowning in Debt". They have articles on credit card rate increases, how to get out from under credit card debt, and a pretty cool interactive graph that outlies the evolution of the credit card industry. They also have a good number of "credit crunch" cartoons, two of which I post below.

Here's one that shows us how the credit card industry continues to hammer away at "irresponsible" debtors after it's necessary.


Here's another that helps us understand why Congress is worthless when it comes to confronting the industry.



There's a lot more, but one thing is clear: The economy is not going to stabilize until we get consumer debt, home foreclosures, and the financial "industry" under control.

Unfortunately, we're not close to achieving any one of these three.

- Mark

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